Will Dorian survive the “hurricane graveyard?” Mike Lyons analyzes

The National Hurricane Center is home to the best hurricane forecasters on the planet and they will be the first to tell you that they have done a poor job predicting the intensity of Dorian.After all, the storm was supposed to be a hurricane today. Instead, it is barely a tropical storm. In fact, when Hurricane Hunters flew through Dorian Tuesday morning they found a very disorganized tropical system. Small tropical storms and hurricanes are notoriously difficult to predict. And, since the storm was born on Saturday the National Hurricane Center meteorologists have said more than once that there is “low confidence” in their intensity forecast.So, what comes next? More surprises. These small systems are prone to wild fluctuations in intensity meaning Dorian could get stronger or weaken very quickly, especially since Dorian is in the eastern Caribbean, sometimes called the “hurricane graveyard.”According to a study published in 2009 found that weather conditions like st…

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